Season 4, Episode 1: Welcome back to a new season of Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl talks about the recent topic regarding jobs and what we can expect for employment going into 2024.ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 1 (8:16 in length), Dr. Kuehl talks about employment – regarding what we saw in 2023 and what we can expect in 2024.      What data was released just this morning (Jan 5th, 2024) regarding employment numbers?    Transportation is very active – what contributions does this have to jobs?The unemployment rate is still low, what does this mean for 2024?    Good news and bad news?    Employers are not thrilled with unemployment rates – why?  Wages continue to accelerate faster than inflation… what is the downside?     Double edge sword – what are both ends?      What will we see ALL year when it comes to wages?     Will we see more layoff activity?    Will ASA members be affected by any of this??    What should ASA members be on the lookout for?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 2: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl answers a member question from his latest ASA monthly economic webinar regarding the energy sector. ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 2 (7:28 in length), Dr. Kuehl answers a member question “Do you have any data for alternative energy (I.e. natural gas reclamation) projects?”    What significant changes are taking place as far as the energy sector is concerned?      Reclamation and new & improved technologies… how do they relate?     What drives the conversation on alternative energy vs. fossil fuels?      What is the most significant change when it comes to energy?    How would oil producers adapt to changes? Has anything changed?    Will we see oil prices stabilize? No matter what happens this year??       What drives alternative energy prices?   Where is the alternative energy index vs. where the fossil fuel index is at?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 3: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl was out of office, so second commander in chief, Keith Prather filled in, and answered a member question regarding the impact of the Red Sea on the global supply chain activity.In Season 4, Episode 3 (6:45 in length), Keith Prather answers a member question in regards to the Red Sea and will it boost rates for shipping and will we feel this impact in the global supply chain. Are we seeing what we saw in 2021 and 2022?What is the fear of the global supply chain shutdown?    Globally, why are we in shock? What is the impact when it comes to rates and cost of shipments?   The drone strike in the last 10 days… what are the challenges of moving shipments in and out?How long will it take to fix this transit time? Q2, Q3?     25% of global capacity has been stripped… where is the impact being felt?     Even though this does not affect the U.S. directly, why should we be concerned?      What does clean tanker activity mean and why does it matter? What do we need to do as distributors?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 4: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl talks about the issue of how inaccurate economists can be when it comes to the economy. The big question is: Why??ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 4 (8:31 in length), Dr. Kuehl talks about the big why on the inaccuracy when it comes to economists forecasting the economy.     What were economists getting wrong in 2023?Why are the expectations so different than the outcome?     Why do we see economic data in a negative position, but we always seem to escape it?How is the economy reacting??   Rerouting due to the Red Sea… what does this have to do with the automotive sector?? Labor supply issues… a chronic issue, but no action to deal with it?How do we keep these issues from reoccurring each year?How do we become more preventative? Why is this challenging for our industry?What will happen to the economy with new congress & political figures this year?Is there still enough health in the economy to continue to grow? Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 5: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl talks about inflation. ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 5 (8:23 in length), Dr. Kuehl talks about the latest inflation news. What does it mean, and what does it not mean?   Why were inflation numbers higher than expected? All kinds of inflation, what do they each mean? Core inflation? Headline inflation?     What do the Fed’s pay attention to?What are the two assumptions when it comes to inflation?  Where are PCE numbers at? Is this where the Fed wants it to be?What does the slight increase in inflationnumbers this week really mean?    The labor shortage – has it contributed at all?What scares the Fed??       Will the Fed lower rates in the second half of the year? Even if these inflation numbers continue to rise??     What affects ASA members the most with these reactions?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 6: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl responded to a few membership questions. ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 6 (5:58 in length), Dr. Kuehl answers some member questions on the topic of consumer trends, and the question of a recession in the second quarter.Are we seeing a return to a more frugal consumer?      The consumer numbers for the start of 2024, how are they?Is the consumer slowing down? Are they aware of the debt they are carrying?      What does the consumer look at? When is there a worry / impact / reaction? When does consumer spending start to slow down in the year?    Will there be a recession in the second quarter?    Are we doing anything that will suggest a recession at ALL this year?      Are we still seeing all the drivers of the economy robust and strong?      What are the four drivers / pillars of the economy?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 7: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl responds to a membership question regarding manufacturing in 2024.ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 7 (8:05 in length), Dr. Kuehl answers a question that refers to 2024 manufacturing, and if this is the year that we will recover?   Has manufacturing ever stopped being great??    What % of total manufacturing value in the world does the United States dominate?   What country challenges the United States when it comes to manufacturing?    What the United States produces is high quality, expensive, and high value. Will that change?   How many people are actually working in manufacturing? What is the reality?    Going into 2024, where is the shift when it comes to trade relations?Trade relationships – who have we always favored?The producer or the consumer?   With more production coming into the United States, what are the pros and cons?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 8: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl responded to a membership question regarding challenges we may face when it comes to construction in 2024.ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 8 (8:08 in length), Dr. Kuehl answers a question that refers to the top four challenges for construction in 2024.     Two pieces of good news, and two pieces of bad news when talking about construction in 2024.     The big inhibition when it comes to construction is what?   Construction projects are on hold… why?      The consistent problem is the labor shortage, will it get better?    Infrastructure money… is it being put to good use?      When states received money from the Pandemic, what choices were made on what to do with it in terms of opportunity?   What sectors have been growing most consistently in the last year?      Do these sectors expect to continue to grow?What is the number one and two things that consumers spend on?    Construction regionally… what pattern are we seeing? Projects are there, but liquidity is the problem, will this impact ASA members?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 9: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl responded to a membership question regarding mortgage rates.ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 9 (8:47 in length), Dr. Kuehl answers a question regarding mortgage rates and if we will see them ever come down or at least level out.   Will we ever see 1-2% mortgage rates?      Will rates even go back to where they were a few years back? What will be the upper end and what will be the drop down?Fundamentally, the Fed rate decisions are made how??    All other rates are based on what? Is it automatic?The Feds conversation thus far on rate reduction has been what?What two things would sway the Fed away from rate reduction?    Where does inflation still exist? Why is it hard to bring down?  What is the BIS? Do they have an influence on rates?When will we see a rate reduction? Are we seeing any consensus?Is it realistic to see mortgage rates in the low 6%?Ask Dr. Kuehl a Question Have a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 10: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl focused on fuel pricing. ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 10 (8:09 in length), Dr. Kuehl answers a question regarding oils, gas, and fuels.   Will oil prices per barrel level stay in the 70s and 80s? Is the United States at a place where we could take care of all our needs with our own production?     A gallon of gas is half crude oil… what does that affect? The other half of fuel is production… what is the refinery cost?      What is the biggest problem with the refinery capacity? What does the affect of investor hesitation have on gas prices?   Will we still be 70% - 80% dependent on fossil fuel by 2070? The consumer is pushing in other directions… why?   Prices will go up… but with a lot of variations.What fuel price is going to be the most volatile for ASA membersIs there good news for crude oil demand and supply?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 11: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl focused on the plumbing industry and what is the forecast for the coming year?ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 11 (8:07 in length), Dr. Kuehl answers a question regarding the plumbing forecast for 2024.  Plumbing is connected to a lot of other sectors… what is the biggest driver?      What is a consideration that matters when looking at this forecast?     What are the challenges?   Recession… Is there anything pointing towards it?      What other drivers will be significant when it comes to the plumbing sector?     Why are certain regions worrying about water?       Is this a sector where consumers get excited about innovations in plumbing?      What are the predictions looking like for 2024?    What can we expect from the plumbing numbers? Can we continue to see growth?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 12: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl focused on why economists are bad at predicting… these last few weeks were unexpected.ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 12 (5:48 in length), Dr. Kuehl talks about the unexpected economic updates from the last few weeks. No more job creation prediction… what happened?    Is inflation back? Do we have it under control?   What is still driving inflation?      What happened to the oil prices within literally one week?What does “dynamic production territory” mean? What is the bottom line with all this unexpected change?   Can we accurately predict some things for the economy come summer?  What part of the population is skewing expectations??    How are all of the sectors doing? Do we see growth?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 3, Episode 1: Dr. Kuehl brings ASA members up to date with the latest on inflation. ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 3, Episode 1 (10:29 in length), Dr. Kuehl talks to ASA members about the latest inflation numbers and what to expect in the upcoming year.       How are the inflation numbers?   Have we reached peak inflation? What is the main driver for inflation?      What impact does Russia have on production?  The market is changing their expectations… why?  The worker shortage… what’s to come?     Will labor negotiations ease in the year 2023?  How are companies responding to the labor issue?Will the U.S. shift policies on the inflation front?What three trends will we see in 2023?What quarter should we expect a change?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast or on his monthly ASA members only webinar? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 3, Episode 2: Dr. Kuehl brings ASA members up to date with the latest on inflation and what to know. ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 3, Episode 2 (7:31 in length), Dr. Kuehl talks to ASA members about the general implications of inflations.What are the three phases for inflation?     Has anything collapsed?    What are the shipping rates?   How can the market be convinced that we reached peak?       What are the latest CPI rates?   When do rates fall to the point where we consider “normal”?Will it ever go away?    What will cause wages to be higher than inflation?     When will we see improvement on inflation?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast or on his monthly ASA members only webinar? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 3, Episode 3: Dr. Kuehl brings ASA members up to date with the latest on what to expect in the beginning of 2023. ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 3, Episode 3 (7:55 in length), Dr. Kuehl talks to ASA members about the comparisons of 2022 and what to expect in 2023.What will happen in 2023?  Do we see growth from the previous year? Why have we missed growth two quarters in a row?    What is this driven by?     What is the Fed signaling?   Canada compared to the U.S… what is happening?      Are we heading into a sectoral slowdown?     What quarter will this all be reliable?Should we be optimistic?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast or on his monthly ASA members only webinar? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 3, Episode 4: Dr. Kuehl brings ASA members up to date with the latest on the recent economic data changes in the recent week.ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 3, Episode 4 (8:20 in length), Dr. Kuehl talks to ASA members about the latest transitions with the economy this past week.How much transitionshould we see with inflation?       Rates raised… AGAIN??   What are the banks saying? Who is siding with the U.S.?  Which prices & threats have gone down?      Should we expect importing from China to go back to normal?Will we see any repercussions?     What will the outcome be with all of this?     Will we escape a full on recession?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast or on his monthly ASA members only webinar? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 3, Episode 5: Dr. Kuehl brings ASA members down memory lane and talks to us about an economist view on things.ASA Chief Economist Dr.Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 3, Episode 5 (7:34 in length), Dr. Kuehl talks to ASA members about how data is unpredictable for everyone including economists themselves.    How can we understand economic data better?  What can we conclude with the reduction on inflation?    What did February’s data show?   How was the job data? What did it show?   What were retail numbers showing?Should we still be concerned about inflation rates?What are we left with??  Will we see a slowdown at all??Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast or on his monthly ASA members only webinar? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 3, Episode 6: Dr. Kuehl answers a member question “What would we do with immigration to make the worker shortage go away?”ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 3, Episode 6 (8:12 in length), Dr. Kuehl talks to ASA members about the worker shortage and what immigration has to do with it.  Retirement is right down the corner for some people. Who will solve the worker shortage when the Boomers retire?    In the past we used immigration… why not anymore?  Will there be a solution to immigration?    What was the assumption on people coming to the U.S?  Refugees Vs. Immigrants… what’s the difference?  Who are we trying to recruit for jobs?      What is the challenge?   What can be done in globalization?Are there quick fixes with the worker shortage?Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast or on his monthly ASA members only webinar? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season3, Episode 7: Are we really heading toward a recession? What’s the latest and greatest?ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 3, Episode 7 (7:34 in length), Dr. Kuehl talks to ASA members about all the recent hysteria concerning whether or not a recession could be in our immediate plans.How real is this threat?Have inflation numbers gotten worse?Why you should care about the Personal Consumption Expenditures number!What inflationary measures have decreased in recent times?What’s the one inflationary measure that has everybody cowering in fear?What Bank of Canada did that we should be aware of. Will the Fed go there?What does CK think about all this? Recession or no recession? What is a soft landing?Q1 projections? Good, bad, real bad?Why ASA members should pay close attention to Dr. Kuehl’s remarks on inventory here.Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast or on his monthly ASA members only webinar? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Keeping It Real With Dr. KuehlSeason 3, Episode 8: Dr. Kuehl talks about what is going on with the labor market and its influences. ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 3, Episode 8 (6:58 in length), Dr. Kuehl talks to ASA members about the labor market and how it relates to the Fed policies.        How do the labor market and Fed connect?What is the Fed’s process?   What are they trying to do?       What is the shadow banking system?    Can it be controlled??   Is there a limit of how much the Fed can accomplish?   When will the rates lower?What trick has always been relied on to lower rates?? What has the hope been?Will we see a large rate increase?   What impact has the weather had on the job market?Ask Dr.Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast or on his monthly ASA members only webinar? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.